Last season on the Eye Test I had a crack at projecting player value for the 2023 season, estimating player salaries based on prior statistical production as well as other factors like player age progression. It wasn’t a failure, but there were clearly areas for improvement. I looked back at the projections in September and noted there were a lot of players I was very close with, like Cameron Munster (0.8% difference), Junior Paulo (0.3%) and Dylan Edwards (0.2%). But there also some that I had missed by a wide mark, like Reece Walsh and Shaun Johnson. In the end...
Continue reading...February 2024
Explainer: Expected Run Metres for the NRL
2024 marks the fifth season of the Eye Test covering the NRL with this site’s advanced statistics. I have no idea how I made it to five seasons, especially after whatever 2021 was. But somehow I’ve made it through to the other side and I’m happy with how the advanced statistics have been working. Mostly. There’s one comment I regularly get about the Eye Test’s Run % metric that always sticks in my head. Which is that it doesn’t judge the quality of that run, just the quantity. The metric just shows (as a percentage) an estimate of how often...
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