Round 16 was a bye week at the Eye Test offices, and I’m back from a much needed break after cataloguing the footwear of every NRL player in Round 15.
And somehow, we’re already at the end of June, which means another month has passed and I’ll be using this week’s post for a league wide efficiency update. Which is going be very useful as the last month of NRL matches have muddied the waters on some of the likely contenders this year.
In a season with a glut of very mid teams outside of (and occasionally including) Penrith, trying to work out who is the most likely side to face them in the grand final has been incredibly difficult. Usually 13 wins would be needed to guarantee you a spot in the finals, but this season 13 wins might even get you in the top five.
If I had to pick today, I’d suggest Melbourne as the least mid of that bunch. I’ll delve into some more Storm specific numbers later in this post. Their ceiling probably isn’t as high as teams like the Roosters or Broncos, but their floor is the highest out of the field. Craig Bellamy coached teams generally don’t beat themselves in the ways the Roosters do.
If you’re new to the site, I’m not going to go over the full breakdown of how these work. Instead, I’ll point you to the prior months’ versions which have some longer explainers.
In short, we compare each teams expected points to their actual on field scoring and defense to judge which teams are over or under performing efficiency wise. As usual, I’ll also point you to the explainer for this site’s expected points model (ETXP).
I’m changing things up slightly this week, looking at defense first, since it’s rare for teams that don’t rank high defensively to make grand finals. Below is the standard average points for versus average points against to paint a picture of where on field performance sits. Further to the right is better in attack, closer to the bottom is better defensively.
There’s a few key takeaways here but nothing groundbreaking. Penrith and Canterbury have the two best defenses this season in terms of points conceded, while the Sharks, Roosters and Storm aren’t too far behind the Dogs. In the case of the Sharks, the first half of the season is doing some very heavy lifting here.
There’s another six teams right around league average in points for and against, with Newcastle slightly worse off in attack. Then we have the Tigers, Raiders, Titans, Rabbitohs and Eels who are the worst defensive sides in the competition, and none of these five teams score more than league average with the ball.
Next up is the same chart but for expected points for and expected points against. Keep in mind that expected points is what an average team would have scored with the same field position and possession. It’s somewhat of a misnomer and is best used as a value of field position, not what they should have scored.
Again, for this chart, further to the right indicates better field position with the ball, and closer to the bottom indicates better field position when defending.
Everything for the Warriors happens on the goal line, they average the most expected points for and concede the fewest expected points against. Penrith are only slightly behind the Warriors at 23.1 expected points per game, and the third fewest expected points per game. As far as controlling field position goes, these are two of the top teams in the league.
The other team that grades well on expected points is Parramatta. The Eels are second best for both metrics, but sitting second last on the table will tell you they can’t defend their line nor cross their opponents.
Cronulla, as we noted before, might have one of the best defensive records for actual points, but they give up the most expected points per game this season. Winning when giving up so much high value possession is only possible if you’re immaculate defensively and rarely make mistakes, which the Sharks haven’t been in the last month.
Brisbane were in a similar situation last season, where they gave up a ridiculous amount of possession on their line, but their goal line defense was elite. The Sharks are still likely to end up top four by the end of the year but they’re not doing any of the things that propelled them into top spot earlier in the season.
Now we’ll start layering these together to get some context. First up is average actual points allowed per game plotted against average expected points allowed per game. As usual, the chart is split into four quadrants – Dominant (very good), efficient/lucky (good), inefficient/unlucky (bad), and Incompetent (very bad/Parramatta).
Here’s where we start to see some interesting trends. As noted above The Warriors have the best expected points for and against this season. This relates back to my belief that the Warriors were in a good position earlier in the season, with their system producing the sort of results most teams would dream of. A lot of ball close to their opponents line, but not a lot on their own.
With one less by than most of the teams above them they’re still a good chance for the top eight, especially if they play as they did against Brisbane. However, the Titans loss and elimination by the Scott Bailey rule has done a number on them and they’re now more inefficient than dominant. Only by about one point per game, so a few positive results would see them flip back to dominant.
The Eels are showing why expected points are exactly that – expected. The Eels have the second highest average expected points per game and give up the second fewest expected points per game. Expected points are what an average team would score given the same possession and field position, but the Eels aren’t even an average team despite the coaching change from Brad Arthur to Trent Barrett.
South Sydney’s last month has pushed them from firmly incompetent to the border of incompetent and inefficient. They’ve got an incredibly soft draw coming up and could push for eight position, but along with the Titans they’ve already exhausted their byes for the season. This means the closest team above them is four points ahead, a hard gap to close with just ten games remaining.
Penrith are still the only team that’s clearly dominant defensively, with Manly and the Dolphins hovering on the boundary and Melbourne pushing in slightly on the back of their 16-6 win over Canberra. You can read a great recap of this game from friend of the site JonnyForeigner at their excellent Storm Machine substack, which you should definitely be subscribing to.
The Dolphins position here is likely to slip away with their depth further tested due to Jeremy Marshall-Kings foot injury. Their hooker is one of the best in the competition and the hardest for Wayne Bennett to replace, and there’s only so much halfback Isaiya Katoa can cover for as a 20 year old. It would be nice to see the Dolphins have an injury free season to see just how good they can be.
The Roosters and Bulldogs defense is very similar going by numbers, conceding similar amounts in both actual and expected points, although both are allowing higher than league average for expected points. As noted with the Sharks it’s not a position you want to be in unless you can protect your own line, which they are doing better than Cronulla. The difference in attack between these two sides couldn’t be wider though, and we’ll see that next chart.
Next is the same chart as above but this time in attack, showing average actual points scored against average expected points per game.
And here’s the Roosters domination, having the second worst average expected points (and therefore average field position) in the competition. They’re scoring 30 points per game from just 16.7 expected points of field position. Melbourne have a similar average for expected points and are still doing well at 26.7 per outing, while the Titans average 16.9 expected points per game yet only average 21.9.
Brisbane has by far the lowest expected points per game but are still scoring slightly above league average thanks to their ability to score from distance. At 28.8 metres per try, they’re second best in the competition behind THE Dolphins, and no team has scored more tries starting from their own half.
This chart also shows where the Warriors might have some issues, with their average distance a try is scored from at just 15 metres, and the lowest percentage of tries scored outside the red zone in the NRL.
Another interesting note is that as efficient as the Roosters are with the ball, they don’t score from long range. They’re the best at converting red zone possession into points quickly, and top the league in tries scored between halfway and the 20 metre line.
Unlike defensively, there’s no real dominating attacking team. North Queensland is the closest, but they’re not that far from the edges of this quadrant. The same applies for Penrith, who have been generating similar field position to prior seasons but not posting points as often.
As an aside, part of me feels that the two points North Queensland (or St George Illawarra) received for beating Penrith on the weekend shouldn’t be the same as the two points that Melbourne got for beating a close to full strength Panthers side 8-0 in Round 1. The competition has outgrown the need for a midweek men’s Origin game that appeals to only two states, and and distorts the league.
If the NRL really wants to be treated as an international competition, it’s time to move Origin to the end of the season (or even the start). I know broadcast deals will dictate the schedule, but the growth in women’s Origin matches can carry the middle of the season as stand alone matches and won’t result in NRL sides putting out NSW or Queensland Cup teams in the top grade over a two month period. But I digress.
Back on topic, the struggles for Newcastle this season have been mostly with the ball, as they sit close to league average defensively. They’re bordering on incompetent in attack, with close to league average expected points but the second fewest actual points per game scored.
As elite as Canterbury’s defense is, their attack is still a work in progress. They’re far closer to the Knights than the Roosters attacking wise, even if they’re almost identical to the latter defensively. They look like certainties for a spot in the bottom half of the top eight, and even a first weekend victory. Anything more than that probably won’t come until they nail down the best positions for their back line.
That wasn’t the case on Saturday evening, as they scored 34 points from just 18.7 expected points of possession in their win over the Eels. Maybe they’ve finally found their halves combination in Will Pryce and Jackson Hastings? Let’s wait to see how they go against a non-Parramatta opponent this weekend in Canberra.
What we can also do with these charts is express them as a percentage to get a quick look at who is doing well, and who is doing poorly. You do lose the context of just how much field position a team is using or yielding, but it still gives an insight into overall efficiency.
Firstly, is the average actual points conceded as a percentage over average expected points conceded.
It’s no coincidence that four of the top five are conceding at least 10% fewer points than expected, with Melbourne not far off at +4% (below the league average of +18%). Cronulla sitting second best here further emphasises how strong they were to open the season – over the last five rounds they’re +19%. They did reel that back in a bit by only conceding 15 points on 28 points of possession against Canterbury.
But again it shows how dangerous it is to be conceding such vast amounts of high expected point value field position. A team with more attacking power than the Dogs would have put Cronulla away sooner. If you’re having to blame either the halfback for missing a field goal or ball runners getting too close to the line, you’re missing the point. Don’t let yourself get into positions where you need a field goal to win, they had plenty of opportunities to put this game away.
The Eels are still allowing 83% more points than an average team would given the same field position and possession, by far the worst in the NRL. That is an improvement on the +90% they were at after Round 11, so I guess if you’re desperate to find some improvement that’s something. For a team having such issues defensively, their lack of serious interest in Knights assistant Brian McDermott and the change in Newcastle’s defense in the last two seasons upon his arrival is baffling at best. I wrote about how the Knights defense was vastly improved last season as they marched towards the finals.
The Warriors allow 55% more points than expected which when combined with their -9% in attack is a dreadful combination that came to fruition in that Titans loss. I think the prior months’ worth of performances from them is more representative than that game however, but there’s clearly some more work to be done on both sides of the ball for Andrew Webster.
We noted previously that Souths had stopped the leaking defensively, but they’re still in the same company as the Tigers at +47%.
Next is the average actual points scored as a percentage over average expected points gained.
This is a great way to highlight how efficient the Roosters are with the ball, nearly doubling their expected point total at +80% above expected. Both Melbourne and Brisbane are also above 50% which is excellent, highlighting how easily both teams are scoring from traditionally low expected point value field position.
At the other end the Warriors are scoring 9% below expected. Some of this will be a factor their attacking style, and Shaun Johnson playing injured. The pace of the current NRL with frequent shifts makes playing hurt below the waist a liability. I’m not completely writing off Johnson after seeing the Wahs flourish without him on the weekend until I’ve seen him back at 100%.
You would have noticed through these charts just how well Melbourne are traveling, especially defensively. Considering they’ve had their first choice five eight for just seven games and their first choice fullback for just nine of their fifteen games puts their performances in perspective.
Their pack isn’t of the same high standard of the likes of Penrith, the Roosters or the Warriors, as they appear a middle or two short. But as always, Bellamy coached Melbourne sides are unmatched in maximising effort areas and extracting more out of players with lower reputations.
So how has Melbourne ended up in top spot despite missing key players for substantial periods of time? It’s mostly consistency and not beating themselves. As I noted at the start, they probably have the lowest floor out of any team other than Penrith, even if they don’t have the upside that Brisbane or the Roosters have.
One reason for this is that they don’t play from behind. Just 25.3% of their minutes played this season are when the Storm has been behind on the scoreboard.
Melbourne also have the highest percentage of time with scores even at 24%. They’re one of four teams who play more than half the time ahead on the scoreboard as well, indicating that once they get in front they usually don’t relinquish it.
If you look at their average margin by minute chart, it shows a very gradual uptick through the course of eighty minutes, with no sustained or significant downward periods.
It’s not as impressive as prior seasons, but they still have no obvious period during a game where they aren’t competing. Which wasn’t the case in 2023 where they were usually trailing after 30 minutes before deciding to turn up. Also please note the ridiculous margins for Melbourne that the 2021 six again insanity produced.
Their overall discipline is average. The Storm don’t concede a lot of penalties, and they aren’t awarded them very often either, both sitting around mid table across the seventeen NRL teams. Again, they’re not putting themselves in situations they can’t get out of.
Melbourne’s heat map of opponent play the balls shows how well they keep opponents in their own half, and they don’t concede a lot of play the balls on their own line. It’s a chart that is very similar to Penrith this season.
The big difference is Penrith trying to pin their foes in the right corner, whilst Melbourne don’t really favour a side for their opponents yardage sets.
Both are quite different to the Roosters, who give up a lot of possession on their own try line, even if they’re able to defend it.
Back to the Storm, they’re not a big net metres per run team this season, having their lowest season since 2015.
They’re gaining 1cm per run more than they concede this year, a far cry from the +1.12m/run they had more than opponents in 2021.
Which results in Melbourne not winning net metres contests regularly. Below is the net metres gained per round by every NRL team this season.
Other than Round 17 against Canberra, they’ve not had a substantial net run metres win this season.
The reason Melbourne can withstand this however as the one thing they do exceptionally well is starve opponents of the ball, especially early in games. Below is the average completed sets by team broken into first (blue) and second halves (orange).
Melbourne allow the second fewest compete sets in the first half at 14.7, one of only two teams to allow less than 15 in the first 40 minutes. They’re also in the top half of the league for completed sets in the second half at almost the same average. Notice the Roosters give up more second half possession than any team other than Newcastle, and those two are the only two sides who average significantly more opponent completed sets in the second half.
The one player who may be even more important to the Storm than Munster is Jahrome Hughes, and he’s why they’ve been able to reach top spot without him. The Storm are 11-1 with Hughes playing and 12-3 overall. He’s currently third in Eye Test Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR) for the season after 17 rounds.
Hughes +2.432 ETPCR ranks only behind James Tedesco and Reece Walsh. Hughes is is clearly the form half this season, with only Mitch Moses (+1.455) close to him who has missed half the season so far. Also note other Storm players in Ryan Papenhuyzen, Sua Fa’alogo and Munster on this list. Eli Katoa and Xavier Coates also sit inside the top 30. Keep in mind that ETPCR is a player impact metric, not a talent metric.
It certainly looks like we’re headed to a revisit of the 2020 grand final this season, as no one else is really standing up and grabbing that second contender spot. There’s no Brisbane this season, who could score from anywhere on the field and withstand incredible amounts of goal line possession. There’s no 2021 Storm, who were beating opponents
It appears as though Melbourne are best poised to take that spot this season, as they limit their opponents’ time close to the line better than any other contending team. And they’re doing it missing half their spine and Harry Grant having a sub par season by his standards. If they can continue this style of play when their full seventeen is fit they could be the best chance of dethroning Penrith in 2024.
The Net Total Metres by team and round chart would be interesting if it showed a straight trend line ? One could see how teams gain a metres advantage as their games progress.