A few weeks ago friend of the site Jason Oliver wrote a tremendous piece for Rugby League Writers on the trend of teams not contesting bombs. It’s a fantastic insight into a part of the game that has become somewhat boring of late, but we all know how risk adverse football coaches are these days.
Rather than do a poor job of rehashing Jason’s article, I’ll just use this quote which sums everything up nicely.
“While they disrupted the contest and forced a mistake, the Titans don’t present a line on the kick chase. Those close to the sideline have contested the kick while the kick chase through the middle didn’t close the gap”
Later in the post Jason highlights how good Penrith are at this (shocking I know) as they “present a line and shut down the kick return before it has started”. If you’re not subscribed to Rugby League Writers, you should be. At only $5 a month, you receive the best on field breakdowns (in text and video) from Jason and Oscar of what is happening on field multiple times a week direct to your inbox.
That article got me thinking, are teams seeing fewer kick return metres because of this tactic? And which teams are the best at defending kicks? Is it only Penrith that do it well? And how much of an impact does the kicker have in these situations?
To do this I’m going to look at the kick metres gained, whether a kick was returned, and if so how may metres were gained on said return. I’m factoring out any point scoring opportunities from attacking kicks, as there’s a lot of context involved and as noted above the incidence of teams not contesting kicks is increasing. The desired outcome of a kick is also dependent on the scoreboard and time remaining, it’s far more complicated than I have time for currently.
Our starting point will be a macro look at the situation (if you’re just interested in the players scroll down about half way). First up is the average kick distance per season up to Round 20 for the past five years.
Average kick distance has stayed reasonably steady around 33 metres per attempt, although the last two seasons have crept up towards 34 metres.
Next, let’s check on the outcome of these kicks, with the average return metres for the same period shown below.
Of kicks that were returned, the average return distance has seen more variance than kick distance. It peaked in 2021 (of course it did) at 9.43 metres per return. In 2023 it was 9.28 metres per return but in 2024 it has dropped by half a metre to 8.76.
What we can do with these numbers though is calculate a net kick distance, by subtracting the kick return metres from a kick to see what the result was.
As you’d expect with kick metres increasing, but return metres staying somewhat constant, the net metres gained per kick is increasing. From 2021 to 2024 the average net metres per kick has increased from 23.72 to 25.11 as teams prioritise defending longer kicks rather than taking a chance on shorter attacking ones.
These numbers are fine at an aggregated level, but not every kick has the same objective. Some are purely to gain ground and get out of a bad situation, some are to get the ball out of play and take a breather, some are to put the defense under pressure from a high ball and some are to get behind the line and create a scoring chance. You should also consider who is chasing the kick as well, since a poor kick chase can easily outweigh the benefits of a perfect kick.
Given this, I’ve loosely split these kicks into yardage kicks, taken before the 60 metre line (10 metres into an opponent’s half) or attacking kicks, those taken within 40 metres of the goal line. It’s not a perfect split, and I’m sure there are reasons why you’d split it otherwise but for the purposes of this analysis I’ve gone with it. Feel free to shoot me an email or DM on one of my social media accounts if you’ve got a differnt idea.
Now when we split these numbers, we can see a few different trends.
Kicks in the attacking 40 metres are traveling a similar distance, but yardage kicks are down about half a metre on prior seasons. But while attacking kicks are slightly shorter, there’s been more of them, as shown below.
69.5% of all kicks in 2024 were taken before the opposing 40 metre line in 2024, up from 64% five seasons ago. This correlates with numbers I looked at earlier in the season suggesting end of set plays were shifting to running the ball rather than kicking. Kicking the ball close to the goal line is somewhat becoming a last resort.
Now when we split out kick returns by kick type, metres from yardage kicks are at their lowest level in five seasons and those kicks are lower than any season other than 2021.
This is where you see the impact of the defensive trend Jason highlighted in his excellent article. Teams had already eschewed kicks into the in goal in recent season and are now aiming them slightly further out and not contesting them to provide a set defensive line to combat them. This is reducing the average return distance for an attacking kick, and teams are using that knowledge to better contain yardage kicks as well. Peak distance of a kick isn’t the goal, it’s containing the set stemming from that return that is the priority.
Need more proof that defenses are prioritising containment rather than scoring? Below is the average return metres based kick landing location in the following 10 metre buckets from 30 metres out to the try line.
The average return distance from an attacking kick in 2024 landing inside 30 metres out from the try line is 6.02 metres, down 70 centimetres from 2023. Kicks returned 30-20m out dropped by 2.3 metres per return in 2024, which is a huge change. Kicks returned from 20-10m out half a metre and kicks received from 90-100m dropped even more by 70cm pre return.
In prior years the further you out you kicked, the longer the return. This season the shortest return is from 30-20m out, although it is at a smaller (but still substantial enough) sample size than the other two buckets. It also means that kicking 10 metres further out is only conceding an extra six metres, which given a similar time in the air for the ball allows defensive lines to be more structured and contain returns.
It’s very easy to see the trend as keenly noted by Rugby League Writers where teams are defend attacking kicks first, and contest them second. The reduction in return metres shows why – it’s better to not score a try than concede field position that might lead to one. If you’re hearing questions around why teams don’t contest bombs anymore, this is further proof.
With the macro look sorted, let’s move on to check how each team performs. Firstly by yardage kicks, sorted by average net kick distance (kick metres minus kick return metres).
Unsurprisingly the Panthers lead the way here with an average net kick metres of 34.1 per returned kick. The Bulldogs, largely (not solely) due to Matt Burton are next at 33.8 net metres per returned kick, with Mitch Moses dragging the Eels to third place here at 32.3 metres per kick.
At the bottom end of this scale, there are five teams who average fewer than 30 net metres per kick this season when chasing yardage. They are the Titans, Raiders, Tigers, Dragons and Sharks. Distance isn’t the issue here, with all five averaging at least 39 metres per kick and three of them averaging 40 metres per kick. It’s the chase that lets them down, with four teams allowing at least 10 metres per kick return, with the Sharks allowing an NRL worst at 11.3 per attempt.
By plotting average kick metres against average kick return metres for yardage kicks, you get a better understanding of just which teams are controlling return metres and which teams need to improve their kick chase. Lower on the chart means fewer kick return metres conceded, and further to the right means more kick metres gained.
You can see just how well Penrith and the Warriors are controlling kick return metres on long kicks this season, both allowing fewer than 8 metres per return. The difference is in kick distance, with the Panthers booting the ball about 4 metres further on average.
Penrith and Canterbury are the only teams kicking higher than league average per attempt but also conceding fewer than league average per return, showing that kicking distance is only half of the equation, while Manly and Parramatta are showing that missing the other half (kick chase) nullifies the benefits of punting the ball as far as you can downfield. Yes longer kicks will probably result in longer kick returns, but there’s a happy medium and it’s probably no coincidence that the Panthers and Bulldogs defenses are more reliable whilst Manly has it’s ups and downs, and Parramatta has been diabolical.
The same chart for attacking kicks (inside 40 metres from the tryline) also shows some interesting trends. Higher up the chart indicates more return metres allowed, and further to the right indicates attacking kick attempts going further.
Most of the league is around league average or below for return metres from attacking kicks, with Manly, Melbourne and the Wests Tigers as massive outliers, all allowing at least 8.7 metres per attacking kick return. The next highest after those three is the Dragons at 6.9, a huge gap for something as common as kick defense close to the line.
The other trend here is that unlike yardage kicks, the distance return from an attacking kick doesn’t have much of a correlation with return metres. The Eels have the shortest average return metres, but also kick the shortest. You have five teams – Canterbury, North Queensland, Penrith, THE Dolphins and the Warriors – who average about 5 metres per attacking kick return but also have quite different average kick distances.
My inference from this is that the outcome of an attacking kick relies far more on how often teams contest the ball than how far the kick travels. Melbourne and Manly do aim a lot of their attacking kicks near the try line at the edges, which if challenged by the attacking team would create the opportunity for longer returns if the defensive team gains possession.
The other trend I wanted to note is that generally kicking early gains more metres. If you look at the average kick metres and average return distance, kicking before the last tackle can net you an extra 8-10 metres.
It’s not something you’d do regularly, but it does boost kick metres by 6-7 per attempt, and drops return metres by about 1 metre as well.
Kicking early is something the Bulldogs do more than any team in the competition, which makes sense given their options and how much Reed Mahoney likes taking a yardage kick from dummy half.
Moving to some more individual numbers, here are the top 10 players by net metres per kick (kick metres minus kick return metres). I think most people could guess this one, and probably second place without thinking.
It’s hardly surprising to see Matt Burton lead this list, as his overall average is 35 metres per kick (not split by yardage/attacking and is lethal on the left side, as shown below in his kick spray chart.
It’s not just Burton that helps the Dogs out here – if I lowered the threshold to just 20 kicks, Reed Mahoney would rank 5th at 32.9 net metres per kick. He doesn’t take a lot of yardage attempts but when he does they’re high quality.
In fact, if I use the same 20 yardage kick limit for last season, Mahoney ranked first for net metres per kick
There’s something to be said about an early kick out of dummy half for maximising metres. More teams should be looking at it.
Now we’ll look at the kickers who allow the most metres per kick return this season.
The worst kickers this season in terms of return metres allowed are Nicho Hynes, Cody Walker, Daly Cherry-Evans, Ben Hunt and Mitchell Moses. Hynes yardage kicks allow the longest returns, at 12.4 metres per attempt. Cody Walker’s kicks are also returned more than 12 metres per attempt, while Cherry-Evans ranks third at 11.6.Some of this comes down to the quality of the kick chase, but some responsibility can be where the kick was aimed at.
Cherry-Evans is incredibly good at finding ground on a long kick, as noted by friend of the site and 2024 Tom Brock Scholar Mike Meehall Wood earlier this season during a podcast we recorded. But his net metres per kick puts him in the middle of the pack due to the high number of return metres the Sea Eagles allow off his yardage kicks.
If we flip it around, we can see which players have the fewest kick return metres from yardage kicks in 2024.
Isaiya Katoa’s kicks are only returned 7.6 metres, with Jarome Luai’s 7.8 the only other mark below eight metres per return. For Katoa to be this good at pinpointing his kicks and giving his defense the best chance to contain a return at just 20 years old should make Dolphins fans very excited to see how he progresses from here. Tigers fans should be similarly pumped about Luai’s long kicking game for next season after watching their yardage kicks this year.
Before we move on here is a quick look at Katoa’s kick spray chart for 2024.
The other names at the top of this previous chart mostly seasoned halves with plenty of experience. For Katoa, considering how much yardage kicking he undertakes, to not only share this space with them but beat them is a tremendous feather in his cap.
Another point worth mentioning is the difference someone like Reynolds makes to the Broncos is immense, and his absence this season has been felt across aspects of their game. For purely yardage kicks, as shown above Reynolds kicks have the third fewest average return metres, far better than Jock Madden (10.2 metres per return) and Reece Walsh (11.6), although they do kick the ball further on these types of kicks.
Yardage kicks aren’t always about getting the most metres though, it’s important to put the ball in a position where your defense can limit their gains from the following set. Reynolds is far better than his team mates at finding the line though, having the third lowest percentage of yardage kicks returned in the NRL this season (66.7%), only trailing Scott Drinkwater and Latrell Mitchell.
Lastly let’s have a look at some of the top kick returning players this year.
Penrith’s Daine Laurie leads the way at 13.6 metres per return, which probably will interest those who think the Panthers system is the key and not the playing talent, especially when Dylan Edwards season average is over 1 metre shorter at 12.2 per kick return.
Another Panther in Brian To’o places second at 13.0 metres per return. To’o is actually seeing more kick returns this season after opposition kickers deliberately kicked away from him in prior seasons. This season it seems like Sunia Turuva is the one they’re avoiding.
Newcastle’s Greg Marzhew (12.3 metres per return), Brisbane veteran Corey Oates (12.3) and Storm fullback Sualauvi Faalogo (11.8) make up the rest of the top five for returns.
Only 12 player average more than ten metres per kick return. James Tedesco has dropped below 10 metres per return for the first time since 2021, down over a metre per return on his 2023 numbers.
